Chiefs feed

Week 10 True Power Rankings: we have a new number one team — and they wear red and gold!

Week 10 True Power Rankings: we have a new number one team — and they wear red and gold!

On Tuesday, the pundits moved the Chiefs right down to fourth — however as soon as we think about knowledge from the number-crunchers, we have a new number one team.

I’m positive Tuesday’s Week 10 Pundit Power Rankings have been a disappointment to many Arrowhead Delight readers. It simply didn’t appear truthful that the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs would fall to fourth place after a 37-21 victory — even when it was towards the Cleveland Browns — contemplating that the Chiefs have performed a harder schedule than the opposite groups on the prime, and their single loss was by a area aim towards one of the most effective groups within the league.

Nicely, what can I inform you? That’s the best way it’s with pundits. They’re human and have their very own built-in prejudices. Typically their practiced eyes and lengthy reminiscences — which often serve them very nicely — want a dose of onerous actuality. That’s the entire objective of our True Power Rankings mannequin — to combine in that dose of actuality.

And also you’re going to love what it tells you this week.

As ordinary, we’ll begin with how the number-crunchers see the NFL in Week 10:

Cruncher Power Rankings for Week 10

Chiefs
AFC West Groups
Different AFC Groups

Rank Team Elo DVOA SRS PE 1
(1) Chiefs
Eight-1 1
(1) 1
(1) 1
(1) Three
(Three) 2
(2) Rams
Eight-1 Four
(Three) 2
(2) 2
(2) 2
(1) Three
(Three) Saints
7-1 Three
(Four) 7
(Eight) Three
(Four) 6
(7) Three
(Four) Patriots
7-2 2
(2) 6
(10) 7
(6) Four
(6) 5
(Eight) Bears
5-Three 13
(17) Four
(5) 6
(7) 1
(Four) 6
(6) Panthers
6-2 7
(7) Three
(Four) Eight
(9) 7
(11) 7
(9) Steelers
5-2-1 5
(6) 11
(13) Four
(Eight) 9
(9) Eight
(7) Chargers
6-2 Eight
(9) 5
(Three) 10
(12) 7
(Eight) Rank Team Elo DVOA SRS PE 9
(5) Ravens
Four-5 12
(11) 10
(9) 5
(Three) 5
(2) 10
(11) Eagles
Four-Four 6
(5) 20
(21) 12
(16) 12
(12) 11
(11) Texans
6-Three 16
(18) 12
(12) 15
(14) 11
(10) 12
(10) Seahawks
Four-Four 11
(Eight) 26
(30) 9
(Four) 10
(5) 13
(20) Falcons
Four-Four 9
(12) 19
(23) 13
(23) 16
(22) 14
(16) Vikings
5-Three-1 10
(10) 16
(18) 18
(19) 15
(17) 15
(13) Cowboys
Three-5 17
(13) 23
(19) 11
(10) 13
(13) 16
(18) Bengals
5-Three 15
(15) 17
(17) 14
(17) 19
(20) Rank Team Elo DVOA SRS PE 17
(15) Broncos
Three-6 25
(23) Eight
(6) 16
(11) 17
(18) 18
(18) Colts
Three-5 24
(24) 15
(15) 17
(15) 14
(15) 19
(17) Packers
Three-Four-1 21
(20) 13
(11) 20
(18) 18
(16) 20
(14) Redskins
5-Three 18
(14) 21
(16) 21
(13) 20
(14) 21
(26) Titans
Four-Four 14
(19) 22
(25) 25
(26) 24
(24) 21
(23) 49ers
2-7 26
(29) 9
(6) 28
(29) 22
(28) 23
(24) Jaguars
Three-5 20
(21) 18
(20) 24
(25) 27
(27) 24
(24) Dolphins
5-Four 23
(25) 14
(14) 29
(28) 26
(26) Rank Team Elo DVOA SRS PE 25
(27) Buccaneers
Three-5 22
(22) 27
(29) 19
(21) 25
(23) 25
(22) Jets
Three-6 27
(26) 23
(22) 22
(20) 21
(19) 27
(21) Lions
Three-5 19
(16) 29
(26) 26
(22) 23
(21) 28
(28) Browns
2-6-1 32
(32) 28
(27) 23
(24) 28
(25) 28
(29) Giants
1-7 30
(31) 25
(24) 27
(27) 29
(29) 30
(31) Cardinals
2-6 28
(28) 31
(31) 30
(31) 31
(31) 31
(30) Raiders
1-7 31
(30) 30
(28) 31
(30) 30
(30) 32
(32) Payments
2-7 29
(27) 32
(32) 32
(32) 32
(32) Numbers in parentheses are the earlier week’s rating.
The left-hand column is the typical of all rankings.
Different questions?
Learn the True Power Rankings Methodology

Within the view of the crunchers, the Chiefs are proper the place they have been in Week 9 — nonetheless ranked first in all the knowledge fashions besides PE.

Usually, I’d give some evaluation of the motion inside the cruncher rankings, however this week, let’s dispense with that. There’s not a lot to debate — and apart from, I’ve already teased you adequate.

Let’s get proper to the meat of this factor, and present you what occurs when we common these cruncher energy rankings with the pundit rankings from Tuesday.

True Power Rankings for Week 10

Chiefs
AFC West Groups
Different AFC Groups

Rank Team Pundits Crunchers 1
(2) Chiefs
Eight-1 Four
(Three) 1
(1) 2
(1) Rams
Eight-1 Three
(1) 2
(2) Three
(Three) Saints
7-1 1
(2) Three
(Three) Four
(Four) Patriots
7-2 2
(Four) Three
(Four) 5
(6) Panthers
6-2 6
(6) 6
(6) 6
(5) Chargers
6-2 5
(5) Eight
(7) 7
(7) Steelers
5-2-1 7
(7) 7
(9) Eight
(9) Bears
5-Three 11
(13) 5
(Eight) Rank Team Pundits Crunchers 9
(10) Eagles
Four-Four 9
(10) 10
(11) 10
(12) Vikings
5-Three-1 Eight
(Eight) 14
(16) 11
(Eight) Ravens
Four-5 16
(12) 9
(5) 12
(14) Texans
6-Three 10
(15) 11
(11) 13
(18) Falcons
Four-Four 14
(17) 13
(20) 14
(16) Bengals
5-Three 12
(14) 16
(18) 15
(13) Seahawks
Four-Four 17
(16) 12
(10) 16
(15) Packers
Three-Four-1 13
(11) 19
(17) Rank Team Pundits Crunchers 17
(11) Redskins
5-Three 15
(9) 20
(14) 18
(17) Cowboys
Three-5 21
(19) 15
(13) 19
(20) Colts
Three-5 22
(23) 18
(18) 20
(24) Titans
Four-Four 19
(22) 21
(26) 21
(19) Broncos
Three-6 24
(24) 17
(15) 22
(22) Dolphins
5-Four 18
(20) 24
(24) 23
(23) Jaguars
Three-5 20
(21) 23
(24) 24
(21) Lions
Three-5 23
(18) 27
(21) Rank Team Pundits Crunchers 25
(26) Buccaneers
Three-5 25
(25) 25
(27) 26
(25) Jets
Three-6 26
(26) 25
(22) 27
(28) 49ers
2-7 28
(31) 21
(23) 28
(27) Browns
2-6-1 27
(27) 28
(28) 29
(29) Giants
1-7 30
(30) 28
(29) 30
(30) Cardinals
2-6 29
(28) 30
(31) 31
(31) Payments
2-7 31
(29) 32
(32) 32
(32) Raiders
1-7 32
(32) 31
(30) Numbers in parentheses are the earlier week’s rating.
The left-hand column is the typical of all rankings.
Different questions?
Learn the True Power Rankings Methodology

The Chiefs are on the prime of the heap — not simply within the AFC, however in the entire NFL — for the very causes you in all probability thought it was mistaken for them to be fourth within the eyes of the pundits: as a result of they’ve performed a stronger schedule, and their single loss doesn’t rely towards them as a lot because the losses the opposite groups have had.

However as your eyes journey throughout the desk, chances are you’ll have observed that one thing appears… mistaken. Shouldn’t the New Orleans Saints be ranked first, with their number one rating with the pundits, and their number three rating with the crunchers?

No… they shouldn’t. As we defined when we launched this collection at the start of the season — you possibly can brush up with the True Power Rankings Methodology — we’re not averaging the ranks themselves, however slightly the numbers behind these rankings.

For instance, I’ll present you the highest 4 groups once more — however this time, with the rating factors from this week as an alternative of the rankings.

Avg Team Pundits Crunchers 2.2955 Chiefs Three.0909 1.5000 2.7500 Rams Three.0000 2.5000 2.9205 Saints 1.0909 Four.7500 Three.7841 Patriots 2.8182 Four.7500

The maths works out. The Chiefs are first as a result of they ought to be.

However whereas we’re right here, let’s return to a remark I referenced in Tuesday’s Week 10 Pundit Power Rankings. I identified that Frank Schwab of Yahoo! Sports activities had characterised the state of affairs appropriately: that the Chiefs, Rams and Saints — however not the Patriots — all had a respectable argument to be ranked number one. This desk reveals that Schwab was proper; as soon as we issue within the cruncher knowledge, the margin between these groups is certainly very small. Because it seems, he additionally picked the correct argument to consider — he was the one pundit in our mannequin to rank the Chiefs first this week!

However let’s not get carried away. Schwab’s opinion — as proper because it was this week — may be improper subsequent week.

As all the time, we’ll shut together with your weekly reality-check. Let’s take a take a look at the Week 10 cruncher grades:

Cruncher Grades for Week 10

Chiefs
AFC West Groups
Different AFC Groups

Team AvgGrade Elo DVOA SRS PE Chiefs
Eight-1 B+
(B+) B
(B+) A-
(A-) B+
(B+) B
(B-) Rams
Eight-1 B
(B+) B-
(B) B
(B+) B
(B+) B
(B+) Saints
7-1 B-
(B-) B
(B) C+
(C+) B-
(B-) C+
(C+) Patriots
7-2 B-
(B-) B
(B) C+
(C+) B-
(B-) B-
(C+) Bears
5-Three B-
(C+) C
(C) B-
(B-) B-
(C+) B
(B-) Panthers
6-2 C+
(C+) B-
(C+) B-
(B-) C+
(C+) C+
(C+) Steelers
5-2-1 C+
(C+) B-
(B-) C+
(C+) B-
(C+) C+
(C+) Chargers
6-2 C+
(C+) C+
(C+) B-
(B-) C+
(C+) C+
(C+) Team AvgGrade Elo DVOA SRS PE Ravens
Four-5 C+
(C+) C+
(C+) C+
(C+) B-
(B-) B-
(B-) Eagles
Four-Four C+
(C+) B-
(B-) C
(C) C
(C) C+
(C+) Vikings
5-Three-1 C
(C) C+
(C+) C
(C) C
(C) C+
(C) Texans
6-Three C
(C) C
(C) C+
(C+) C
(C) C+
(C+) Falcons
Four-Four C
(C) C+
(C+) C
(C-) C
(C-) C
(C-) Seahawks
Four-Four C
(C+) C+
(C+) C-
(D+) C+
(B-) C+
(B-) Cowboys
Three-5 C
(C) C
(C) C-
(C) C
(C+) C+
(C+) Broncos
Three-6 C
(C) C-
(C-) C+
(C+) C
(C+) C
(C) Team AvgGrade Elo DVOA SRS PE Bengals
5-Three C
(C) C
(C) C
(C) C
(C) C
(C) Colts
Three-5 C
(C) C-
(C-) C
(C) C
(C) C+
(C+) Packers
Three-Four-1 C
(C) C-
(C) C
(C+) C
(C) C
(C) Redskins
5-Three C
(C) C
(C) C
(C) C
(C) C
(C+) 49ers
2-7 C-
(C-) C-
(D+) C+
(C+) C-
(D+) C-
(D+) Titans
Four-Four C-
(C-) C
(C) C-
(C-) C-
(C-) C-
(C-) Dolphins
5-Four C-
(C-) C-
(C-) C
(C+) C-
(D+) C-
(C-) Jaguars
Three-5 C-
(C-) C-
(C-) C
(C) C-
(C-) C-
(C-) Team AvgGrade Elo DVOA SRS PE Jets
Three-6 C-
(C-) D+
(C-) C-
(C-) C-
(C-) C
(C) Buccaneers
Three-5 C-
(C-) C-
(C-) D+
(D+) C
(C-) C-
(C-) Lions
Three-5 C-
(C-) C
(C) D+
(D+) C-
(C-) C-
(C) Giants
1-7 D+
(D+) D
(D) C-
(C-) C-
(C-) D+
(D+) Browns
2-6-1 D+
(D+) D-
(D-) D+
(D+) C-
(C-) C-
(C-) Cardinals
2-6 D
(D) D+
(D+) D-
(D-) D-
(D-) D-
(D-) Raiders
1-7 D-
(D) D-
(D) D
(D+) F+
(D) D-
(D) Payments
2-7 F+
(D-) D+
(D+) F+
(F+) F+
(F+) F
(F) Grades in parentheses are the earlier week’s grade.
Different questions?
Learn the True Power Rankings Methodology

As soon as once more — with out the bias induced by rankings, which inform us solely that one worth is bigger than one other, however not by how a lot — we see that the groups on the prime (and backside) are bunched collectively fairly intently. One of the best (and worst) groups within the league are fairly straightforward to determine.


All the groups within the NFL have performed a minimum of half of their video games for the season, so the info fashions are giving us higher outcomes than they did early within the yr, and the pundits are starting to see the person timber within the forest. We’re beginning to get a fairly clear concept of what’s happening.

Once I was operating my check of the True Power Rankings mannequin in 2017, it was proper round this level of the season that I began to see how nicely it might work. Crowdsourcing the opinions of the pundits — and then factoring in outcomes from a number of knowledge fashions with totally different strengths and weaknesses — actually did give a clearer image of what was occurring than any particular person pundit or mannequin might hope to do.

I hope that you simply’re beginning to see that, too. As Andy Reid may say, the truth that the mannequin now exhibits the Chiefs on the prime of the NFL is simply icing on the cake.

So let’s benefit from the Week 10 video games. On Tuesday, we’ll hearth up the spreadsheet, and see the way it all works out.

(perform(d, s, id)
var js, fjs = d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];
if (d.getElementById(id)) return;
js = d.createElement(s); js.id = id;
js.src = “//connect.facebook.net/en_US/sdk.js#xfbml=1&version=v2.9”; //FB model change : WD-1625
fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js, fjs);
(doc, ‘script’, ‘facebook-jssdk’));

Recent Comments

    Categories